Canadian retail trends 2026
Holiday 2025 Insights: Canadian Retail Trends 2026 for Small Businesses
As we move through the first quarter of 2026, Canadian small business owners are looking for actionable insights to guide their growth. Canadian retail trends 2026, revealed by holiday 2025 spending data, show how consumers are shopping cautiously, seeking value, and timing purchases strategically — crucial information for small businesses planning ahead.
Why? The way Canadians shopped last holiday season reveals how consumers are likely to behave throughout 2026: cautious, value-driven, and strategic about when and where they spend.
Payment data, consumer surveys, and economic forecasts all point to the same conclusion: retail demand is still strong, but it is concentrated, intentional, and sensitive to value.
Holiday 2025 Insights
Canadian holiday spending in late 2025 was not evenly distributed across the season. Instead, spending clustered around a few high-impact shopping days.
According to Moneris payment data:
- Black Friday was the busiest shopping day of the entire holiday season
- December 22 and 23 reached approximately 94% and 95% of Black Friday’s transaction volume
- Cyber Monday reached roughly 79% of Black Friday’s volume
- Boxing Day generated less than half of Black Friday’s transaction activity
(Source: Moneris Data Services, 2026)
This signals a structural shift: Boxing Day is no longer the dominant retail moment it once was. Small businesses can no longer rely solely on post-Christmas clearance.
Overall Holiday Spending
While key shopping days like Black Friday performed strongly, total holiday spending in 2025 remained flat compared to 2024, declining by approximately 1%. Consumers focused their spending on peak days rather than spreading it across the season.
In practice, Canadians made more smaller purchases — consistent with TD Bank survey data showing that about 36% of Canadians planned to cut back on holiday spending. (TD Bank, 2025)
Moneris advised retailers to “plan for multiple spikes in demand” (Black Friday, pre-Christmas week, and last-minute shopping) instead of relying on a single sales day.
Holiday Metrics Summary (2024 → 2025)
| Metric | Change |
|---|---|
| Total holiday spending | –1% |
| Number of transactions | +1% |
| Peak day (Black Friday) | 100% baseline |
| Dec 22 vs Black Friday | 94% |
| Dec 23 vs Black Friday | 95% |
| Cyber Monday vs Black Friday | 79% |
| Boxing Day vs Black Friday | <50% |
Black Friday shoppers formed larger baskets, with transaction volume 25% higher than the prior week and average basket size up 14%. Canadians responded strongly to big-value deals even as overall holiday spend remained flat.
(Source: Moneris Data Services, 2026)
Regional Insights from Holiday 2025: Forecasting Canadian Retail Trends 2026
Holiday activity varied across Canada:
- Manitoba: holiday spending grew >2% and transactions +3% year-over-year
- Alberta: consumers were cautious; spending fell 8%, with 53% planning to cut back
- Ontario: relatively stable; only 9% planned to spend more, with a modest 4% decline in overall volume
These differences suggest localized strategies: aggressive promotions in strong markets like Manitoba, and value-focused campaigns in more cautious regions such as Alberta.
Digital vs. In-Store Shopping
Moneris observed that shopping channel mattered:
- Black Friday drove in-store traffic
- Cyber Monday skewed toward online shopping
Small businesses should ensure omnichannel readiness: advertise in-store doorbusters for Black Friday, optimize e‑commerce and social media promotions for Cyber Monday, and maintain smooth checkout experiences, including mobile payments and local pickup or delivery.
2026 Retail Outlook: Economic & Consumer Context
Looking ahead, Canada’s economy is projected to grow modestly in 2026:
- GDP growth: ~1%
- Core inflation: ~2%
- Interest rates: expected to remain steady
- Job market: strong, supporting wage growth
Consumer spending remains the main driver (~60% of GDP). According to NielsenIQ, shoppers enter 2026 with “cautious optimism”, favoring intentional, value-driven spending. Discretionary purchases will be selective, focused on essentials or bargains.
Sector trends suggest foot traffic will remain healthy in markets boosted by sports events, tourism, and local experiences. Early deals and last-minute buying are expected to remain central in 2026. Businesses that use data to predict demand, optimize operations, and build customer loyalty will be best positioned.
Actionable Strategies for Small Retailers
Inventory Planning: Stock smartly for multiple holiday peaks. Ensure extra inventory is ready for Black Friday and the late-December rush rather than relying on Boxing Day. Keep stock lean enough to avoid overhang if overall growth is muted. Monitor sales data weekly and adjust reorder pace based on demand patterns.
Seasonal Promotions & Pricing: Highlight value. Feature bundled deals, gift packages, and clear discounts on key dates. Promote Canadian-made products, use gift cards strategically, and ensure pricing transparency.
Digital vs. In-Store Channels: Invest in both. Create an inviting in-store experience for Black Friday shoppers and optimize online platforms for Cyber Monday. Offer flexible fulfillment (click‑and‑collect) and quick contactless payments.
Leverage Regional & Local Marketing: Adapt messaging to local sentiment. Emphasize savings in cautious markets and higher-end or new products where demand is strong. Participate in community events and highlight “shop local.”
Customer Retention Tactics: Turn seasonal buyers into repeat customers. Use personalized follow-ups, loyalty programs, referral incentives, and hassle-free returns to foster long-term engagement.
Key Takeaways
- Plan for peaks, not one day: Black Friday and pre-Christmas surges are now bigger than Boxing Day.
- Emphasize value: With many shoppers cutting budgets, focus promotions on clear savings and bundles.
- Optimize every channel: Seamless service across in-store and online is critical.
- Go local: Canadians support local businesses; highlight your community roots.
- Build loyalty: Follow up post-holiday to convert one-time shoppers into repeat customers.
By leveraging Moneris data and economic forecasts, small businesses can make data-driven decisions on inventory, promotions, and customer engagement. The 2025 holiday season demonstrated that Canadian consumers remain active but cautious; retailers offering value, convenience, and personal touch are best positioned for growth throughout 2026.
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Sources
- Moneris Data Services (2026). Black Friday and Holiday Shopping Trends 2025.
- TD Bank (2025). Smaller Budgets with Bigger Impact: Canadians Plan to Slash Holiday Spending.
- BDC (2026). Canadian Economic Outlook 2026.
- NielsenIQ (2025). From Caution to Control: Canadian Consumers Redefining Value in 2026.
- PwC Canada (2025). 2025 Canadian Holiday Outlook.
